The Nassau Guardian reports that many people are stranded and emergency rescuers are not yet able to reach them. The threat from the storm could not be underestimated a life threatening situation was unfolding in the Bahamas, and continues to persist at the time of writing of this blog. Storm surge, or the rise in sea level due to the strong winds pushing water onshore, was expected to be between 18 and 23 feet above normal tides. Notice that sustained wind speeds in the storm were 180 miles per hour, and wind gusts were expected to exceed 200 miles per hour. Storm effects, such as heavy rain, winds, and storm surge can impact areas very far removed from the center, as we will see in a few minutes. ![]() It is very important to note that this cone does NOT represent the area of influence of the storm, only the range of possible locations of the center. Notice that as the forecast time increases, the possible range of solutions increases, and the cone widens. Essentially what this area represents is the range of possible locations of the storm center. The shaded area around the track is what is known as the 'cone of uncertainty'. ![]() The black circled letters represent the center location of the storm S is for Tropical Storm, H is for Hurricane, and M is for Major (Category 3 or higher) Hurricane. The location of the storm at the time of forecast issuance is given by the orange circle. This is a good time to go over what exactly what information theforecast graphics from the National Hurricane Center, such as the one above, contain. ![]() Forecast track and intensity for Dorian, August 28, 2019.
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